Russia, the world’s largest country by landmass, is among the fastest de-populating due to elderly mortality, low fertility, and other maladies such as alcoholism and cancer. Canada’s economic policy is its immigration policy, the engine of its diversification beyond commodities into technology and other sectors. While the overall population of northern states has plateaued, countries such as Canada, Germany and Kazakhstan have become major migration magnets, even melting pots, as they collect skilled workers and refugees. From the British Isles to eastern Anatolia to Japan’s main island of Honshu, there are many depopulated yet verdant zones that can support larger numbers.Ĭurrently the latitudes most suitable for human habitation are currently the ones with the most rapidly aging populations. Canada and the Great Lakes region, central and northern Europe, southern Russia, and other regions are becoming relatively more livable (despite volatility in temperature extremes) in the decades ahead. Where might you live in 2050? Humankind is on the hunt for locations blessed with sufficient water, food, and energy resources. The decimal place is shifting to the right. Now, in the 21st century, more than one billion will be displaced by climate change. In the 20th century, imperial collapse, World Wars, ethnic expulsions, state failures, and economic migrations drove hundreds of millions of Europeans, Latinos, and Asians to resettle in new homes. In the 19th century, tens of millions of Europeans fled famine and hardship, resettling in the Americas, and a similar number of Chinese and Indian laborers circulated around the plantations of Asia. So where will the young survivors of today’s storms gather over the next 20-30 years? Which technologies will be the platforms of our future societies and economies? What new model of civilization awaits us?Ĭlimate models reveal that each degree of temperature rise shifts the “climate niche” of optimal human habitation northward from the present 20-30 degrees latitude. We can preemptively reorganize ourselves for collective survival-if we try. Unlike centuries past, billions of humans are physically capable of relocating if the need arises. Some nations and regions will break down, but others will become vital hubs for our future civilization. Furthermore, we are not just a collection of local civilizations but a connected global system. Even with accelerating Boomer mortality, low fertility, and the possibility of another global pandemic, a devastating world war, and climate induced famine, the world population would likely still stand at 6 billion people by 2050. Today’s world population stands at eight billion people, quadruple the population of a century ago. It was not a single event that caused the Roman and Mayan civilizations to collapse, but rather this complex collision of chain reactions.īut even in the most plausibly dire scenarios, billions of people will survive. They are manifestations of complexity-a global system in which the environment, economy, demographics, politics, and technology constantly collide in unpredictable ways. Our daily headlines underscore how we are overwhelmed by crises: COVID-19, natural disasters, ruptured supply chains, food shortages, international conflicts, spiking oil prices, failing states, refugee flows, and so forth. We’re not very good at predicting the next five days, let alone five years. careens between populism and incompetence, while China remains locked down at home and alienates many nations abroad. The superpowers will be no salvation: Locked in a “new Cold War,’ the U.S. As sea levels and temperatures rise and geopolitical tensions flare, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that humanity is veering towards systemic breakdown. This year, the number of international refugees will cross 30 million, also the highest figure ever. In 2021, global carbon dioxide emissions reached 36.3 billion tons, the highest volume ever recorded.
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